Bitcoin at Risk? The Pattern That Could Define the Next Bear Market
What is happening with Bitcoin right now is not random. There is a pattern that repeats across cycles and, if ignored, turns the trader into a statistic. But if properly understood, it can be exactly what allows you to preserve capital — or even take advantage of major market moves.
This analysis is not about prediction. It’s about reading structure.
And when you calmly look at the charts, the current scenario demands attention.
The Pattern That Repeats in Bitcoin Cycles
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin is not simply “falling.” It is building a classic trend transition structure.
After a strong upward move, the market left a bearish divergence — one of the most relevant signals of weakening momentum. Then came a stronger correction, and now price enters a consolidation phase.
This behavior is not new.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin also showed:
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Higher highs followed by loss of strength
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Formation of a lower high
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Break of a key low
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Loss of the 20-period moving average
And that is exactly what is beginning to appear again.
The Critical Point: Lower High and Loss of Structure
A real trend change does not happen because of a single candle or an isolated drop.
It happens when structure changes.
In the current scenario:
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Bitcoin is starting to form a lower high
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Price is trading below the 20-period moving average
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The next decisive step would be breaking the previous low
If that low is violated, the market opens room for another leg down — and historically, these moves are not mild.
Retracements Show Where the Market Can Go
Looking at the last major bull cycle — which took Bitcoin from around $15,000 to above $120,000 — it becomes clear that the current move may still be part of a larger correction.
Fibonacci retracement has already reached important levels, near the 38% region.
But history shows something even more relevant:
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin dropped approximately 77% after the top.
In other words, declines of 60% to 70% are not exceptions. They are part of the asset’s normal behavior in bear cycles.
The Global Context Also Weighs Against Bitcoin
Bitcoin cannot be analyzed in isolation.
The current macro scenario shows:
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Stock markets like the S&P 500 entering a downtrend
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Increased global risk aversion
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Pressure from geopolitical events
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Rising oil prices impacting costs and the economy
This environment is usually unfavorable for risk assets.
And Bitcoin, despite its own narratives, still responds to this global flow.
The Weekly Chart Already Confirms a Downtrend
Dropping to the weekly chart, the picture becomes even clearer.
The market already shows:
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Lower highs
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Lower lows
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A well-defined descending structure
Price still finds support in important regions, such as the previous bull market top, but this kind of support is not a guarantee of reversal.
If this level is lost, continuation of the downtrend becomes the most likely scenario.
The Possible “Last Leg” Before the Bottom
Now comes a more strategic point.
Even in downtrends, there is a moment when the market begins to lose strength. This moment is usually marked by bullish divergence on RSI.
In the previous cycle, this is exactly what signaled the bottom:
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Price made new lows
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RSI did not confirm those lows
This divergence indicated weakening selling pressure.
Today, this signal has not appeared yet.
But if the market makes another leg down and this divergence shows up, it could be the first sign that a bottom is being formed.
The Most Dangerous Mistake: Trying to Catch the Bottom
One of the biggest mistakes in moments like this is trying to “catch a falling knife.”
Buying because “it has already dropped a lot” is common — and dangerous.
There is a huge difference between:
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Investing gradually, without leverage, thinking long term
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Trying to pick the bottom using leverage
In the second case, the risk of blowing up is high.
A more consistent approach for leveraged trading is to wait for:
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Formation of a higher low
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Recovery of the 20-period moving average
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Confirmation of an uptrend structure
Before that, the market remains technically bearish.
The Daily Chart Shows Selling Pressure
In the short term, the daily chart reinforces this view.
Bitcoin remains:
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Below moving averages
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In a descending structure
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Respecting bearish projections
If it loses current support, the next levels may be targeted based on Fibonacci projections, including regions near $60,000 — a relevant technical and psychological level.
Ethereum Confirms the Same Behavior
Ethereum is doing nothing different.
In fact, it is simply following Bitcoin.
Both assets:
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Made a top
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Lost strength
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Broke structure
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Are below moving averages
This reinforces an important principle:
Bitcoin leads the crypto market.
And as long as it does not show clear signs of reversal, the rest of the market tends to follow the same path.
What Needs to Happen for the Scenario to Change
A trend reversal does not happen by hope.
It needs confirmation.
The signals that would change the outlook are:
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Formation of a higher low
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Break of a relevant high
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Recovery of the 20-period moving average
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Increase in volume
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Bullish RSI divergence
Without these, the scenario remains cautious.
Risk Management Matters More Than Opinion
More important than trying to predict the next move is protecting capital.
Many people enter the crypto market concentrating everything in a single asset. And when the cycle turns, they suffer more than they should.
Diversification is not about giving up returns. It is about surviving cycles.
Having exposure to:
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Equities
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Fixed income
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Different markets
is part of a more professional approach.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is not just “correcting.” It is potentially transitioning into a new bear cycle.
The technical structure shows:
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Weakening trend
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Risk of continued decline
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Absence of clear reversal signals
This does not mean a straight-line drop. On the contrary.
The market may have rallies, corrections, and violent upward moves. But until the structure changes, the main flow remains bearish.
In the end, the market does not reward those who try to guess.
It rewards those who understand context, respect structure, and survive long enough to take advantage of the right opportunities.
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