What can we expect from the S&P 500, Ibovespa, Commodities, the Dollar, and Bitcoin in 2025?
In this article, we’ll analyze these markets with a multi-month—or even multi-year—perspective, something rarely done in the past five years of the channel. If you’re looking for long-term projections and want to understand how these markets might behave, this text is for you.
S&P 500: A Long-Term Uptrend
The S&P 500, the main U.S. stock index, has maintained a bullish trend since the 2008 bottom. The subprime crisis, one of the most recent major financial collapses, marked the start of a bullish pivot that’s still ongoing today.
- Crises and Corrections: Despite the pandemic shock (over 20% decline), the index quickly recovered, continuing to post higher highs and lows.
- Looking at the 6-Month Chart: Each candle represents six months, so any correction is significant in both time and percentage. Corrections of 15% to 20% are common, yet the overall trend remains bullish.
- Volume and Possible Correction: Volume has been weakening as price rises, which is a bearish sign, but there is no clear reversal pattern yet. The uptrend stays in place unless a major top or a bearish pivot forms.
Conclusion for the S&P 500:
- Still in an uptrend; those who bought during previous corrections, especially the pandemic drop, have seen considerable gains.
- Be mindful of sharp corrections (common on 6-month charts), but there’s no concrete indication of a long-term downturn at present.
Ibovespa: Decoupled from the U.S. Market
While the S&P 500 remains strong, the Ibovespa faces a different scenario. In recent months, Brazil’s stock market hasn’t followed the U.S. market rally, breaking the positive correlation that historically existed.
- Foreign Capital Outflow: In 2024, about BRL 24 billion left the Brazilian stock market, reflecting lower foreign investor confidence.
- Double Top and 6-Month Chart: Two tops at the same level indicate difficulty returning to an upward path. If the index breaks below 95,000 points, a more prolonged downturn could ensue.
- Risk of Repeating 2011–2016: Back then, while Europe and the U.S. rose, Brazil declined and lost market relevance. There’s concern this could happen again.
Conclusion for Ibovespa:
- Currently in a corrective leg on the 6-month chart.
- The 95,000-point mark is key support. Losing it could open the door to sharper declines.
DXY: The Dollar vs. the World
DXY measures the dollar against a basket of developed-market currencies and has shown a steady upward trend since 2011.
- Possible Breakout of Previous High: The index is close to breaking its last high at 114,000 points. If confirmed, it might target even higher levels (projections near 133,000) but likely over a number of years.
- Critical Levels: Should it drop below 99,000 points, it would move into a long-term downtrend. Otherwise, it remains strong.
Conclusion for DXY:
- If it breaks the previous high, the dollar could become even stronger globally.
- Should it fall below 99,000, it would shift to a bearish outlook in the long run.
USD vs. BRL: A Long-Term Bullish Trend
Besides the dollar gaining strength globally, the Brazilian real has been underperforming compared to other emerging currencies. On the monthly chart:
- Bullish Pivot: It has already hit 161% of Fibonacci, implying a short-term correction, yet the long-term trend remains bullish.
- Key Support: The BRL 5.95 level may be tested in this corrective move, but losing that level doesn’t rule out further upside (with projections up to BRL 6.76 or more).
Conclusion for USD/BRL:
- Continues its bullish trend, with a short-term pullback underway.
- If it breaks the prior high, it confirms strong buying pressure and could reach new peaks.
Commodities on the Rise
The Commodities Index (CRB or similar) shows that the prices of various raw materials (such as oil, grains, and metals) are moving within an upward channel on the monthly chart.
- Approaching Channel Resistance: If it breaks that level, it could test its all-time high.
- Global Benefit: S&P 500 is bullish, and commodities are rallying; however, Brazil can’t fully capitalize on this wave due to internal issues.
Conclusion for Commodities:
- Upward momentum; if it breaks the channel top, it could surge further, possibly revisiting historical highs.
- The bullish bias is supported by macroeconomic factors, as well as supply and demand dynamics.
Bitcoin: No 6-Month Downtrend So Far
Looking at Bitcoin on a 6-month chart, it has never definitively entered a downtrend.
- Higher Highs and Higher Lows: Despite short-term bear markets (70% or more corrections over a year), the semestral chart continues forming higher highs and higher lows.
- Toward 1 Million?: Some analysts believe Bitcoin could eventually reach very high price levels. Nonetheless, anyone highly leveraged without a stop could be wiped out by 70–90% pullbacks.
- Big Cycles with Violent Corrections: It remains on a long-term uptrend, yet it’s subject to severe drops that often liquidate positions using excessive leverage.
Conclusion for Bitcoin:
- Far from a 6-month downtrend reversal.
- Participants should be prepared for abrupt corrections and always use stops to avoid catastrophic losses.
Final Thoughts
2025 promises significant activity across various markets. While the S&P 500 remains bullish and commodities stay strong, Brazil lags behind, with Ibovespa struggling to hold support and the dollar pushing higher. Bitcoin and DXY show consolidated strength on long-term charts, yet they’re open to major corrections.
- Long-Term Outlook: Charts of 6 and 12 months may signal huge moves, but their pullbacks are equally dramatic.
- Risk vs. Opportunity: Trends can offer large gains, but those overly leveraged and without risk management can face severe losses.
- Broker Tip: For the Brazilian market, BTG Pactual is recommended for day trading or long-term investments.
Whatever market you choose, thorough research and a solid trade plan remain the best ways to seize opportunities and safeguard against inevitable corrections.
Happy trading!
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